David Stoughton of ValueKinetics writes:
Fascinating development - why wasn't I watching when this commenced. President Sarkozy is trying to railroad a bill to 'curb illegal downloading' through the French parliament. The intended penalty involves cutting off the offender's access to the Internet, "... the agency would send three warnings to Internet customers whose line was being used for illicit downloading. If the use were to continue after that, they would be cut off for a period of one month to a year".
On Thursday of last week the bill was rejected on second reading, but only because the Socialists staged a sudden invasion (well, only a few extra were needed) of an otherwise nearly empty chamber. No-one is going to take no for answer though, "... the Government said that it would retable the law after Easter", when - barring a rebellion in the ranks - its substantial majority will ensure they can push it through.
Never mind that the the provisions are probably unenforceable - a new lease of life for Internet cafes is assured - this seems very uncharacteristic for the French. Sarkozy is proving not just more pro-American than any of his predecessors, but apparently a soft touch for big business lobbies as well - "The international recording and film industry is strongly behind the French law and they hope that, when enacted, it will set an example for the United States and other countries in the battle to end illegal downloading".
Actually, I can't help feeling some sympathy with smaller French media companies (we should not forget that France has its global media giants too). They have a restricted market and, apparently, the French are avid consumers of illegally downloaded content, "... about one third of French Internet users admit doing so". Many of the small players may lack the scale to survive while new business models are established and new streams of revenue replace existing ones.
The bigger picture, however, is of continued paralysis in a media industry unable to accept the bald fact that their business has changed. To imagine that persuading a French president to try sticking a finger in the dike will really hold back the flood is breathtakingly myopic. I appreciate that there may be something like panic in the ranks as new models take time to emerge; I can understand trying to buy time to adapt; but I fear it's more likely this is yet another refusal to face facts. A lot of resources that could be devoted to innovation must be being squandered on continued lobbying. I know pockets in the sector are deep but, leaving aside whether it is helpful, is this wise? Doesn't it just reinforce a set of, no longer tenable, assumptions about the market that amount to believing at least four impossible things before breakfast?
- That consumers are still the passive consumers of inbound content we've known and loved, really; not the out-of-control production line for outbound media that frightens us;
- That they have the same use for, and place the same value on, content now as before the pesky Internet interfered;
- That they have just as much time and attention as previously to devote to our stuff; and so that,
- If only the leaks can be plugged, demand will return to its old level and revenues restored, or (hope springs eternal) reinforced.
It is this blind faith that the value of media is a constant, or at least varies only with quality, that has deprived the industry of its ability to respond. Another foray into 'punishing the naughty children' will not restore a world that is history now, even if Sarkozy is fool enough to believe it will.
Of course I also wonder if such a toothless effort is in fact the - politically - perfect response to the issue you lay out so thoughtfully.
Make a fuss, but do nothing ... How many RIAA-style assaults on downloading French Mums will result from this law? Surely none.
Posted by: Mike Bayler | April 13, 2009 at 11:34 AM